We read every token born on Robinhood Chain and recorded what happened next. Across 209,278 of them, one thing separated the survivors from the rest — and it was visible before the first day was over.
我们记录了 Robinhood Chain 上每一个新生代币，并追踪它们之后的走势。在 209,278 个代币中，有一件事把幸存者和其余的区分开来——而且在第一天结束之前就已经能看出来。
Volume rushed into the first three hours
成交量在最初三小时内涌入
Volume that spread out slowly
成交量缓慢分散
Share that later reached twice its opening price.
其后达到开盘价两倍的比例。
A rush of buying in the first hours looks like demand. In the data it behaves like an ending. Tokens whose volume arrived early peaked lower, faded faster, and were more often dead within two days.
最初几个小时的抢购看起来像需求。但在数据中，它的表现更像结局。成交量早早到齐的代币，涨幅更低、退潮更快，也更常在两天内归于沉寂。
| Cohort | 组别 | Median peak | 峰值中位数 | Reached 2x | 达到 2 倍 | Alive at 48h | 48 小时存活 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 70% of volume in first 3h逾 70% 成交量集中在前 3 小时 | 1.3x | 29% | — | ||||
| Under 40% of volume in first 3h前 3 小时成交量低于 40% | 3.4–4.0x | 70% | 100% |
Cohort sample: 198 tokens with complete price history. Two further findings from the wider set: tokens from deployers with no prior failed launch collapsed 2.4% of the time, against 18.4% for deployers with a history of them. And in a sample of 1,010 tokens, those drawing more than 800 buyers in the first two hours had the lowest survival rate of any group we measured, at 33%.
组别样本：198 个具备完整价格历史的代币。来自更大样本的另外两项发现：此前没有失败发行记录的部署者，其代币崩盘率为 2.4%；有失败记录者为 18.4%。在 1,010 个代币的样本中，前两小时吸引超过 800 名买家的代币，存活率是所有组别中最低的，仅 33%。
We will keep publishing this, including the months when the finding weakens or reverses. A measurement you only publish when it flatters you is not a measurement.
我们会持续公布，包括结论减弱或反转的月份。只在结果好看时才公布的测量，不是测量。
A token on Pons that carries this finding, and nothing more than that. It is named after the window we measure.
一个发行在 Pons 上、承载这项发现的代币，仅此而已。它以我们测量的那个时间窗口命名。
There is no protective mechanism in the contract. The contract comes from the Pons factory, the same one behind every token on that launchpad. We cannot add a per-wallet cap or anything else to it, so we are not going to imply that we did. Most projects claim a mechanism. Ours is a measurement.
合约中没有任何保护机制。合约由 Pons 工厂生成，与该发行平台上的其他代币完全相同。我们无法为其添加单钱包限额或任何类似设计，因此也不会暗示我们做了。多数项目主张自己有某种机制，我们有的是一次测量。
The creator's buy is made in the opening transaction, at the same price and under the same snipe tax as anyone else buying at that moment. The exact share of supply it represents will be filled in here once the pool is live, along with the address holding it. Any sale from that position will be announced before it happens.
创建者的买入在开盘交易中完成，价格与当时买入的任何人相同，同样承担狙击税。其所占供应量的确切比例将在池子上线后填写于此，并附持仓地址。该持仓的任何卖出都会提前公告。
This is a token, not a business. There is no revenue behind it and nothing being sold. Its price depends on what the next person will pay, and no one — including us — can promise you that person will exist.
这是一个代币，不是一门生意。它背后没有收入，也没有在售卖任何东西。它的价格取决于下一个人愿意出多少，而没有人——包括我们——能向你保证那个人会出现。
On this launchpad, 167,354 tokens have been launched and 2,334 have graduated. That is 1.4%. This one is far more likely to be in the other group than not.
在这个发行平台上，已有 167,354 个代币发行，其中 2,334 个毕业，比例为 1.4%。这一个更可能属于另外那一组。
What we can do is not stand on the other side of you. That is why the numbers above are published rather than described, and why they will stay published if they turn against us. Treat anything you put here as money you can afford to lose.
我们能做的，是不站在你的对面。因此上面的数字是公布出来的，而不是被描述出来的；即便结果对我们不利，也会继续公布。请把投入这里的任何资金，都视为你输得起的钱。
Nothing here is financial advice. Names and symbols can be copied on this launchpad — always check the contract address against the one published on this page.
本页内容不构成任何财务建议。该发行平台上的名称与符号可被复制——请始终以本页公布的合约地址为准进行核对。